Est-il minuit moins une à l’horloge du climat?

– Par Samantha Mailhot –

L’évolution du climat prend une tournure de plus en plus urgente et de nombreuses personnes s’affairent à l’atténuer. Cependant, seulement une minorité de la population mondiale participe activement en ce sens. Cette inaction pourrait découler de plusieurs facteurs, comme une communication inadéquate en matière de climat, un manque perçu de consensus parmi les scientifiques, l’incompréhension de la gravité des changements climatiques et de ses causes anthropiques, et un manque de connaissances sur les gestes à poser dans notre propre vie pour atténuer les changements climatiques. Le Human Impact Lab, avec le soutien de l’Université Concordia, a mis au point l’horloge du climat, un outil qui vise à combler le fossé entre la science et l’opinion publique. L’horloge montre le temps restant avant d’atteindre un réchauffement planétaire de 1,5 à 2 °C au-dessus des moyennes préindustrielles : des seuils au-delà desquels des phénomènes catastrophiques liés au climat surviendront probablement suivant une fréquence croissante. L’horloge transmet la progression des changements climatiques à l’aide d’une mesure comprise par tous : le temps. Elle nous permet de visualiser les impacts potentiels du réchauffement climatique sur notre vie ou celle de nos proches, et d’y réfléchir. La résolution de ce problème nécessite une action collective, et l’horloge du climat se réglera à mesure de nos progrès.

Time is something we all understand. As each of us go about our daily lives, worrying about more immediate and personal issues, climate change is progressing at an accelerating rate. While many areas around the world have begun to feel the effects of climate change via extreme weather events, floods or wildfires, the majority of the global population has likely not seen any major effects of climate change on our day-to-day lives. This incomplete perception of risk is compounded by low awareness and understanding of the potential consequences of climate change, and is exacerbated further by the outright denial of the problem as currently demonstrated potently (though not exclusively) in US politics. The result is that we have not yet fully embraced the need for immediate and stringent action to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and eliminate our dependence fossil fuel energy.

The Climate Clock was developed by the Human Impact Lab in collaboration with Concordia University in Montreal to bring the climate challenge out of the abstract sphere of science and politics, and into the public consciousness. Framing the problem in units of time, makes it something that we can intuitively understand; the clock acts as a line in the sand that we can identify with, and that can track our progress towards meeting the goals of climate mitigation.

Given current global and national ambition to limit global warming to no more than 1.5 to 2°C above pre-industrial averages, the Climate Clock shows our best estimate of when global temperature will reach 1.5 and 2 °C above these temperatures, assuming global CO₂ emissions continue to increase following the observed trend of the past five years. The clock shows three numbers: (1) “Tonnes of CO₂ emitted”, which represents the total accumulated CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel burning, cement manufacture and land-use change since 1870; (2) “Global warming to date”, which represents the human contribution to global temperature increases since 1861-1880, based on a recently-developed Global Warming Index that estimates the portion of observed temperature change that can be attributed to all human drivers of climate change; and (3) “Time left to 2 °C”, which is based on extrapolating the most recent 5-year trend of global CO₂ emissions (which increased by 0.56% per year during 2012-2017) until we reach the total allowable emissions of 3500 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions; and (4) “Time left to 1.5 °C”, which identifies the time that 1.5°C is crossed on the trajectory towards the 2°C climate threshold. As of December 2017, we have 15 years remaining until we reach 1.5°C of global temperature increase, and 27 years remaining to 2°C. With each year’s new emissions data, we will update the clock, allowing us to evaluate our progress or lack of progress in efforts to curtail climate change.

In 2017, I carried out an undergraduate research project, entitled Running out of time: Using a climate clock to communicate the urgency of climate change. I was concerned with the general lack of concern about climate change that I have perceived in the people around me. My research project aimed to bridge science and community knowledge in order to understand: (1) how aware people are on the subject of climate change and why they are not more concerned about it; (2) to what extent people engage in environmentally-friendly behaviors and what barriers are the most important in preventing climate action; and (3) how effective the climate clock is as a tool for communicating the urgency of climate change to a broad range of people. My research found that some of the barriers to sufficient concern for climate change among respondents were inadequate climate communication, a perceived consensus gap among scientists, confusion about the severity of climate change and its anthropogenic causes, and most importantly, a lack of understanding of what they can do in their own lives to mitigate climate change. The majority of my respondents reacted very strongly when shown the Climate Clock, revealing emotional responses that included fear, shock, anger and sadness; yet they did not know how to do their part for climate action. Many felt lost.

The Climate Clock is therefore an extremely powerful communication tool, providing a visceral view of the progression of time towards the climate targets that we are trying to avoid crossing. The clock shows us the urgency of climate action, but it is up to us to find ways to implement the action that is needed. We need to educate ourselves on what we can do personally, as well as on how we can use our own personal and professional spheres of influence to motivate change in those around us. Every single human being on Earth will be affected by climate change. To avoid the more serious consequences on the horizon, we need to act now, together.

About the Author

Samantha Mailhot holds an honours degree from the Department of Geography, Planning and Environment at Concordia University, where she worked with Dr. Damon Matthews, Professor and Concordia University Research Chair in Climate Science and Sustainability. Her interest in environmental issues began at the beginning of her university degree, and has grown significantly as she progressed in her education and research. She plans to continue studying climate science and communication as a graduate student and hopes to contribute to our understanding of what science communication strategies are most effective to motivate climate action.