Risk ratios showing probability of anthropogenic forcing having an effect on various metrics.

Written by CMOS Bulletin SCMO on .

Figure showing risk ratio for various metrics for the study on anthropogenic climate change increasing change of extreme wildfires in Fort McMurray. For each metric listed, the risk ratio value is shown with the point and the whiskers extending to each side indicate the uncertainty. Fire weather index is approx 6, uncertainty 4 to 16. Drought Code is approx 1.5, little uncertainty. Spread days is approx 4, uncertainty 2.5 to 6. Fire Intensity is approx 3.5, little uncertainty. Fire season start (before 15 Apr) is approx 2, uncertainty 1.5 to 3. Fire season end (after 31 Sept) is approx 3, uncertainty 2.5 to 3.5. Fire season length (>165 days) is approx 4, uncertainty 3 to 6) A risk ratio exceeding 1 indicates that anthropogenic forcing increases the probability of the event in question.

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